AI models ace their predictions of India’s monsoon rains

Photograph: Raghu Rai/Magnum Photos

Oct 22nd 2025|4 min read

The Indian monsoon, which usually begins its slow northward sweep around the start of June, brings three-quarters of the country’s annual rainfall. That makes it essential for agriculture, on which almost half of Indians depend. But the monsoon is notoriously hard to predict. It is driven by differences in temperature between land and sea, the amount of snow cover on the Himalayas, soil moisture and many other far-flung influences. And climate change is making the guessing game even harder.