War in Iran could cause the biggest oil shock in years

Mar 1st 2026 (updated Mar 2nd 2026)|7 min read

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP likes to launch his military campaigns on a weekend. In June, during a 12-day war started by Israel, American forces bombed Iran’s nuclear sites on a Sunday. They captured Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s former dictator, on a Saturday in January. And they hit Iran again on February 28th, a Saturday, in dozens of strikes co-ordinated with Israel that killed Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader. One theory is that Mr Trump deliberately pushes the button when oil markets are closed, to let the dust settle and prevent prices from going haywire. It hasn’t really worked this time. Late on March 1st Brent crude, the global benchmark, briefly exceeded $82 a barrel, up by 13% since February 27th, before settling near $80, the biggest price rise in four years. As the war spreads, the price could go much higher.