Recessions have become ultra-rare. That is storing up trouble

Nov 10th 2025|San Francisco|8 min read

From 1300 to 1800, economic historians estimate that England and then Britain were in recession almost half the time. The economy was volatile, with storming recoveries following crashing downturns. As capitalism matured and policymaking improved, recessions became less frequent. In the 19th century the country was in recession only a quarter of the time, a share that fell lower still in Britain and other rich countries in the 20th century. Today things are even more placid: recessions have become an endangered species.