An illustration of a swan with a body shaped like a bond certificate swimming calmly over turbulent water filled with pieces of paper beneath the surface.

Illustration: Satoshi Kambayashi

Feb 22nd 2026|4 min read

INVESTORs WAKING from a stupor that began on New Year’s Eve might question whether they had missed anything. For all the recent geopolitical drama, the S&P 500 share index of big American firms sits almost exactly where it did at the end of 2025: just shy of a record high. Beneath the surface, however, the churn in America’s financial markets has been furious. A panic about what artificial intelligence will do to business models has prompted software firms’ stock prices to tumble: they are a third below a recent peak last year. On February 23rd IBM’s slumped by 13%, owing to vague worries about what AI means for the tech veteran.

Signage for Mizuho Bank Ltd., a unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MHFG), at one of the bank's branches in Tokyo, Japan.

Markets are churning furiously beneath the surface