Flares burn off excess natural gas at the Endeavor Energy Resources LP oil and gas wells near Tarzan, Texas, USA.

So why aren’t markets on fire?Photograph: Getty Images

May 12th 2026|4 min read

Ten weeks into the Iran war, the mystery is deepening. Every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, nearly 14m barrels of oil—14% of global output—are lost. At least 2bn barrels will probably disappear from this year’s total even if the strait reopens today. Yet Brent crude, at $106 a barrel, fetches much less than the $129 it hit in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, and nowhere near the $150-200 analysts predicted if the Iran war dragged on.

Signage for Mizuho Bank Ltd., a unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MHFG), at one of the bank's branches in Tokyo, Japan.

How the world has avoided an oil catastrophe so far