How Kalshi can help the Federal Reserve

Apr 30th 2026|3 min read

AMERICANS LOVE a flutter. Trading volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket, their favourite peer-to-peer bookies, surpassed $50bn last year, up from $16bn the year before. Most of the bets concern sports. But punters also place wagers on everything from actual weather to the political climate and, to economists’ delight, economic conditions. Bets on things like official GDP growth, payrolls and inflation still account for just 1-2% of trading on the two platforms. However, they are now large enough to attract one giant whale—the Federal Reserve.