A Japan Airlines (JAL) airplane flies past an oil refinery as it approaches to land at Tokyo's Haneda airport, as seen from a park in the Keihin Industrial Zone in Kawasaki, south of Tokyo, Japan.

Photograph: Reuters

Apr 21st 2026|Lausanne|6 min read

TRADERS OF OIL futures are a sunny bunch. On April 17th, after Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”, the price of Brent crude fell by 10%, to $90 a barrel. Within hours Iran reversed course and attacked an Indian tanker. The next trading day the global benchmark rose by just 5%. It has gone back up above $100 since but remains around $15 below its high in late March, even though an American blockade has trapped even more oil in the Gulf.

Signage for Mizuho Bank Ltd., a unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MHFG), at one of the bank's branches in Tokyo, Japan.

Global energy markets are on the verge of a disaster