US at odds with allies over how easy it is to reopen Hormuz

EVIAN-LES-BAINS, France – US President Donald Trump keeps repeating that the Strait of Hormuz – through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally flow – will reopen by June 19.

But on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit, where Iran will dominate the dinner conversation, it is clear that his European allies do not share his optimism.

They disagree that trade can resume by week’s end, like Trump promised, and have practical questions about what exactly was agreed on before they can commit to de-mining missions and patrols.

According to one G-7 official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal dynamics, there are serious difficulties in finding a common position among the group about how to deal with the situation in Iran.

Few are expecting a joint communique, something that has proved elusive during the Trump era.

Even Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who for the most part has artfully avoided provoking Trump, said her country’s contribution is conditional on a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, where Israel’s military has carried out strikes in recent days.

She is not alone in questioning Trump’s accelerated timeline.

It does not help that even within Trump’s own administration, there are prominent figures who did not go as far in promising that navigation along the vital chokepoint can go back to normal at the snap of a finger.

One senior US official said traffic in the waterway would ramp up over time, and it could take as many as two weeks for shipping to significantly increase – and even longer for it to return to the levels seen before the US attacked Iran along with Israel in February.

There are mines in the strait that still need to be cleared and shippers have different risk tolerances about navigating Hormuz, the official said.

The official said the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran will make it explicit that the strait will be open toll-free for 60 days, and the US will expect that provision makes it into a final agreement.

The fact is that free navigation, once a given, is now the subject of negotiations that have not even started.

While US and Iran both said they reached an interim agreement to reopen the strait, without an official document out in the open, they have offered different descriptions of what it says.

Officials are due to sign the accord in Switzerland on June 19. US officials have offered differing timelines for when the full text will be released, with Trump saying by week’s end at the earliest and another senior US official saying within the next two days.

Vice-President J.D. Vance is likely to represent the administration at the signing.

The G-7 leaders will next decide on a framework to de-mine the waterway, including an agreement from Iran and other involved parties, Bloomberg reported earlier.

European leaders are planning to seek Trump’s approval for the mission at the G-7.

The problem they are facing is that Trump has played down their role and the difficulties that they would face in trying to help.

“Ships are starting to go out now, on Friday it’ll be completely opened,” Trump said on June 15 at the leaders summit in Evian.

“They’re doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they’ve already found, but it’s – essentially ships are starting to go out now.”

Furthermore, deployments will not start before there is a final agreement between the US and Iran that restores full and unimpeded commercial navigation rights as well as a permissible environment for military assets in the strait, Bloomberg previously reported.

That could be a matter of weeks rather than days, German officials are warning, because any direct involvement would require an international mandate.

And clearing the mines could prove complex and time-consuming.

It is not clear how many mines are in the strait or even whether any were placed to begin with. Iran has, at various times, said it had mined the narrow waterway.

As early as mid-March, the UK said it appeared clear Iran had done so, while the US said that was not the case.

Ensuring the strait is clear will be a painstaking exercise, said Caitlin Talmadge of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The work will go faster if Iran provides whatever information it has about mine placement, she said.

European countries have a substantial amount of mine-clearing capabilities, she added. But those vessels will be in a bad position if hostilities resume.

“Mine clearance operations are intended to be conducted in a permissive environment,” she said.

“The relevant vessels and operators could be vulnerable if Iranian attacks resume, particularly dedicated mine countermeasures ships which generally lack an ability to defend themselves.”

In spite of their reservations, Europeans are moving forward with their planning.

French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have led an effort by US allies to produce a plan to help reopen the strait in the event of a final peace deal.

More than 15 countries have committed equipment and personnel to the mission.

As host – and this is his last G-7 as leader – Macron is invested.

“It’s a very important matter for peace, for the whole world, and it will reopen Hormuz,” Macron said.

“It will provide peace in Lebanon. And so we are ready to take our fair share of the burden and be part of the commitment of the international community.” Bloomberg