Temperatures set to surpass 35 deg C for over 100 million in Europe

PARIS – At least 101 million people in Europe are expected to experience temperatures in excess of 35 deg C on June 25, including 50 million in France and 18 million in Germany, according to calculations

Maximum temperatures are expected to surpass 30 deg C for more than 380 million people across Europe, excluding Turkey, representing nearly two-thirds of the population, according to an analysis based on forecasts from the German weather service and 2025 population projections from the Joint Research Centre.

The figures broadly align with projections by the Austrian NGO Klimadashboard, and are up from June 24, when the German weather service said 94 million people were impacted by temperatures exceeding 35 deg C.

Mainland France was again the most impacted, where around 63 million people will see temperatures of more than 30 deg C.

The heat will also surpass 30 deg C for 70 million people in Germany, 48 million in Italy and 38 million in Britain.

Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands will also be impacted by the heatwave searing much of Western Europe since last weekend, as will people in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Croatia.

AFP used a method similar to the one used by Klimadashboard, cross-referencing the DWD weather forecast model (calculated at midnight GMT) with population density.

Residents are counted if the model predicts temperatures exceeding 30 deg C or 35 deg C at their location at any point during the day.

As the model has a resolution of approximately 6.5km, it cannot fully capture urban heat islands, said David Jablonski, of the non-governmental organisation Klimadashboard.

Consequently, “we likely underestimate affected people in dense urban areas”, the organisation noted on its European Heat Tracker website. AFP