Russian attacks could cut Ukraine grain exports by a third

KYIV, June 18 - A rise in Russian attacks on Ukrainian seaports and vessels could cut monthly grain shipments by as much as a third and have left terminal operators facing mounting losses they say they cannot cover alone, officials and industry executives said.

Ukraine, one of the world's major grain exporters, relies heavily on its Black Sea ports, which handle more than 90% of its exports.

Three exporters and industry officials told Reuters that intensified missile and drone attacks on ports, ships, railways and energy infrastructure are threatening the flow of cargoes.

Russia for a time had blocked Ukraine's key seaports following its full-scale invasion in February 2022, forcing Ukraine to shift its exports to the Danube ports in the 2022/23 season. But, following a deal to allow grain through the Black Sea, ports in the Odesa region have recently been handling about 6 million tons of cargo a month.

"Potentially, export volumes from Odesa ports could fall to 4 million metric tons a month because of the attacks," said Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine's deputy economy minister.

"About 1 million tons could be redirected to Danube terminals, but not more than that — logistics there are expensive."

Denys Marchuk, deputy head of Ukraine's largest farming union UAC, said he agreed with the assessment of the decline and that strikes on ports were now among the biggest constraints for the sector.

A 30% fall in key exporting months would pose a significant challenge for exporters as Ukraine enters the new season with large carryover stocks, which will put downward pressure on domestic prices, reducing farmers' incomes.

Export disruptions could also have broad consequences for Ukraine's wartime economy, where agricultural exports are a key source of foreign currency revenue.

It could also impact global markets. Ukraine in recent seasons has accounted for about 6% of global wheat exports and about 11% of global corn exports.

STRIKES ON TERMINALS

Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian ports and energy infrastructure during the war. Kyiv says the attacks are aimed at undermining Ukraine's economy and its ability to export food to global markets.

The pressure on logistics is acute for private terminal operators, who have suffered repeated damage since Russia's invasion.

Losses incurred by port terminals since the start of the war are at $1.5 billion, Marchuk said, adding that terminals "really do not have enough money for restoration".

Vysotskyi said the government was aware but budgetary resources were currently focused on preparing Ukraine's electricity sector for the winter, when Russia is expected to intensify strikes on the power sector.

For terminal operators, the damage is not limited to buildings or storage facilities. They say ports use specialised equipment that is difficult to replace quickly.

Arsen Muradian, head of Novotech-Terminal in Odesa, told a grain conference in Kyiv this week that the number of air raid alerts had risen sharply in 2026, forcing workers to spend long hours in shelters.

"There are shifts when the terminal works for one hour and then everyone spends 11 hours in shelters," Muradian said, noting that Odesa had experienced 2,600 air alerts since the start of the war, lasting 50 days in total.

STOCKS RISE

Attacks on vessels entering or loading at ports have also intensified, a terminal owner said, raising the cost of freight and making shipowners more reluctant to call at ports.

"Shipowners do not want to enter ports and are asking for higher freight rates," Muradian said.

The constraints are already visible in grain balances.

Oleksandr Terziev of Kernel, one of Ukraine's largest agribusiness groups, said Ukraine was expected to have carryover stocks of 9 million tons of corn and wheat as of July 1.

APK-Inform, an agricultural consultancy, said this month it saw carryover stocks even higher - at 9.5 million tons as of July 1. Ukraine had 7 million tons of grain in stocks last July and 6.4 million tons a year earlier.

Terziev said those volumes could potentially have been exported, but logistical problems had prevented shipments. Ukraine has exported 34.9 million tons of grain so far in the current season versus 39.5 million a season earlier. REUTERS