Israel likely to continue attacks in Lebanon, US intelligence concludes

WASHINGTON – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is likely to continue military action against Hezbollah, despite the ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran that specifically calls for a halt to fighting in Lebanon, according to a recent US intelligence report, American officials said.

Netanyahu is under intense domestic pressure to continue operations against Hezbollah’s ongoing attacks on northern Israel. Israel views Hezbollah, the potent militia and political group in Lebanon funded by Iran, as a critical threat, and officials there do not believe the attacks can go unanswered.

US intelligence agencies believe Israel is likely to continue such operations, even if they hinder negotiations between Iran and the United States that are supposed to address elements of Iran’s nuclear program and secure a permanent peace deal, according to the officials.

The ceasefire deal is deeply unpopular in Israel, where commentators criticise its failure to address Iran’s missile program, its requirement that US forces leave the region and, especially, its constraints on Israeli military operations in Lebanon.

Israel is not a party to the accord, which was signed on June 17. But the Israeli ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, said on June 19 that his country had committed to an immediate ceasefire and “halted all offensive operations” in Lebanon. He insisted that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon and said Israel would never compromise on its security.

The recent intelligence assessments show the skepticism inside US spy agencies that such commitments will hold, given the security concerns.

Earlier on June 19, Israel had conducted airstrikes in Lebanon after a Hezbollah drone strike killed four Israeli soldiers in an ambush in Israeli-controlled southern Lebanon. The Israeli strikes killed at least 47 people. The strikes followed other Israeli military operations against Hezbollah.

Those clashes led to a postponement of talks between US and Iranian officials, which had been set to begin on June 19 in Switzerland.

The new intelligence assessment was reported earlier by The Washington Post.

Those recent intelligence reports outline what has been obvious in public: Netanyahu and other Israeli security officials are uncomfortable with the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. At the same time, relations between US President Donald Trump and Netanyahu are strained, even if there is little indication that the Israeli prime minister will give up on the relationship.

Officials said Netanyahu was counting on relations with Trump strengthening once more before he faces Israeli voters this fall. Netanyahu’s standing and influence with Trump has waxed and waned before, though the high stakes of the accord with Iran appear to have pushed relations to a low.

The most recent intelligence report was written before Vice-President J.D. Vance strongly criticised Netanyahu on June 18.

At a news conference to promote the US deal with Iran, Vance lashed out at members of Netanyahu’s Cabinet who had criticised the United States or Trump over the ceasefire.

“Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to be the head of state of the world’s superpower,” Vance said. “If I was in the Cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.”

Representatives of the Israeli Embassy in Washington did not immediately return a request for comment. But Israeli officials have said their operations in Lebanon are defensive in the face of attacks by Hezbollah. NYTIMES

• This article originally appeared in The New York Times.