IEA's Russian oil output forecasts cut after Ukraine attacks

MOSCOW, July 10 - The International Energy Agency has downgraded its projections on Russian oil production because of Ukrainian attacks on the country's energy infrastructure, the agency said on Friday.

Ukraine has stepped up the drone strikes on energy facilities including oil refineries in recent months, seeking to stifle Moscow's war efforts.

"Continued strikes on refineries, storage facilities and transport infrastructure underpin a weaker production outlook and we have accordingly cut our Russian supply outlook for this year and next, by 85,000 barrels per day and 150,000 bpd respectively, to average 8.8 million bpd over the forecast period," the Paris-based agency said in its monthly outlook.

The IEA expects oil output from Russia, the world's third-largest producer, to reach 8.9 million bpd this year and 8.8 million bpd in 2027, down from 9.2 million bpd in 2025. The outlook was downgraded for this year and next by 85,000 bpd and 150,000 bpd respectively.

Russia's June crude production increased by 120,000 bpd from May to 8.86 million bpd, the agency said, 900,000 bpd below the quota set by the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies.

The attacks on refineries have also led to an increase in Russian crude oil exports in recent months. Industry sources have said that shipments from Russia's western ports hit a record high in June and are expected to maintain that level in July.

Exports from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, along with the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, reached nearly 3 million bpd in June, the sources' data showed.

The IEA put Russia's total crude oil exports in June at 5.8 million bpd, up by 620,000 bpd from May. Oil products exports declined last month by 230,000 bpd from May to 1.91 million bpd.

Russia introduced a diesel export ban this week, in addition to restrictions on overseas sales of gasoline and jet fuel, to tackle domestic fuel shortages. REUTERS