Burnham's 'King of the North' tactics will be clipped if he becomes UK PM

MANCHESTER, England, June 19 - When Labour's Andy Burnham fought a Conservative government that wanted to impose stringent COVID restrictions on Greater Manchester with insufficient compensation in 2020, the mayor not only won hearts in England's north but also revived his national standing.

After winning a seat in parliament for his local area of Makerfield, Burnham, 56, hopes to ride a level of popularity rarely enjoyed by politicians to become Britain's seventh prime minister in a decade.

But if he does take the mantle, the combative approach towards central government that served him so well in northern England will come up against reality: with Britain's finances so tight, the sums needed to fund his as-yet nascent agenda might be as difficult to find as they were six years ago.

ANY NEW LEADER WILL FACE SAME PROBLEMS

Four senior lawmakers in the governing Labour Party acknowledge that Burnham would face the same constraints as Prime Minister Keir Starmer has done - anaemic economic growth, the rise of populist politics, a cost-of-living crisis and fiscal constraints that leave scant room for manoeuvre.

Tom Watson, a former deputy leader of Labour, put it bluntly on Substack last month when he urged the party "to take a breath" before triggering a leadership contest "and acknowledge the structural problems" any new leader would face.

"Changing leader will not magic away low growth, the cost of Brexit, higher defence spending, rising welfare costs, broken public services, the politics of migration, the cost of net zero or the tax choices now closing in on the government," he wrote.

One senior Labour lawmaker said this week that without a clear agenda for every decision made to try to boost growth, the boldness to carry it through and a readiness to take risks, Burnham could founder like Starmer, whose popularity ratings are some of the worst of any British leader.

So far, Burnham, a career politician, has only given hints of what his agenda could be if he becomes the next prime minister, either through a Labour leadership contest or acclamation by Labour lawmakers, the route favoured by many in the party.

On winning the election and seeing off a threat from the populist Reform UK party of veteran Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, Burnham said it was time to put the country back on the "right path" and to change politics.

"Everyone can feel that the country isn't where it should be," he said in a speech that was briefly interrupted by other Makerfield contenders. "Tonight could just could be the turning point."

MAKERFIELD CAMPAIGN A BURNHAM BALANCING ACT

Burnham performed a delicate balancing act as he campaigned for the parliamentary seat of Makerfield, careful not to alienate voters in the former coal-mining area by focusing too much on national rather than local issues.

Having lived near the area, Burnham often showed a detailed knowledge of a region which, he says, has suffered from post-industrial neglect for 40 years, although official data say it sits in the middle of the national deprivation rankings on income, while faring relatively poorly on employment and health.

It is his record as Greater Manchester mayor, a job he took in 2017 to escape what he called London-centric politics, and after failed attempts in 2010 and 2015 to become Labour leader, that offers the best insight into his possible plans.

Burnham's battle against then-prime minister Boris Johnson over the toughest COVID pandemic restrictions in 2020 raised his profile again beyond Manchester.

When his receipt and dismissal of Johnson's offer of £22 million in compensation - a third of the "bare minimum" he was asking for - was captured live on television, it burnished his image as a "King of the North" standing up for his region against an overbearing central government.

He describes his political beliefs today as "more 'place first' rather than 'party first'" and strongly supports further decentralisation.

He has long argued that, by shifting power away from London, which dominates Britain's economy, communities can take direct control over the things that shape their own lives, such as utilities and transport.

But his comments on fiscal policy have caused alarm.

Labour has pledged to balance day-to-day spending with revenues by 2029/30.

But Burnham said last September that Britain had to get "beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets", prompting borrowing costs to jump briefly on the assumption that he would want to spend and borrow more. More recently, he has said he was misrepresented.

Some investors were also alarmed after Burnham suggested compensating women whose pension payments fell short when the retirement age was raised, a scheme that could cost billions of pounds, and cutting student loan repayments.

WHERE WILL BURNHAM GET THE MONEY?

He has since walked those comments back, but has pledged to keep the triple lock - a policy that increases the state pension each year in line with whichever is the highest of inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5%, costing the Treasury billions.

He has pledged to increase defence spending while not increasing taxes. Rather than directly cutting soaring welfare payments, he says he will reform the system and get more people back into work.

Some investors suggest his calculations do not add up.

"I think he'll just spend more, and I think he'll do some tax increases," said David Zahn, Franklin Templeton's head of European fixed income.

"I am concerned (the fiscal rules) won't be adhered to. It's very clear the UK needs to spend a lot more on defence, but it's not clear where that money will come from."

For now the investors are holding fire, waiting to see whether the reassurance Burnham has offered will hold.

Gordon Shannon, a partner at bond investors TwentyFour, said that, for now, "he's demonstrating that he gets ... that his behaviour is going to be constrained by the bond markets".

The proof will be what he does if he enters Downing Street, and who is at his side. REUTERS